Machinery Industry Trend or from high to low
2010 sales growth of machinery industry is expected to reach 15%, profit growth is expected to reach 10%, export growth is expected to reach 15%. in China Machinery Industry Federation recently held the third member of the General Assembly, Second on the machine, Executive Vice President of Union of 2010 Ci Cai but the main economic indicators of industrial machinery to the latest forecast.
In 2009, China’s industrial added value grew machinery 13.8%, GDP growth rate reached 16.07%, machinery industry has maintained steady and rapid growth. However, structural adjustment, and major equipment compared to the results of independent innovation, \\China’s machinery industry will show a high to low run trend.
Restructuring effective innovation fruitful
From 2009 to run features of China’s machinery industry point of view, the equipment manufacturing industry and the automotive industry restructuring and revitalization of the gradual release effect of policy implementation, focusing on trade policies to support the most obvious effect, agricultural machinery and the automotive industry rebounded in the policy support faster than other sectors , in particular the automotive industry as the growth of machinery industry in 2009 \While maintaining steady and rapid development, effective machinery industry showed signs of industrial restructuring.
Second half of 2008 to May 2009, China’s machinery industry output value of new products, industrial output growth has been lower than the same period. Since June 2009, the higher the monthly growth rate of new products, annual output value of new products rose 23.74 % industrial output growth has been higher than the same period. show that the industry’s technological progress driven by demand in the market to become more active again.
From the basic machinery industries, the various industries in decline, while structural optimization presents highlights: According to the machine tool industry, 197 key enterprises and Statistics, 1 September 2009, metal processing machine tool numerical control rate of output increased by 6 percentage points year on year, reaching 53.6%; metal cutting machine tools production fell 30.6%, but the average unit price increased by 34%; CNC machine tool production decreased 13.8%, unit price increased by 21%. Moreover, the decline in production of CNC machine tools is much smaller than ordinary machine tools, CNC machine tools The decline in the yield of high-end machine is smaller than economic machine tool, machine tools this can be seen clearly in the upgrade momentum.
At the same time, and energy saving-oriented product structure adjustment has made great progress .1.6 l and below the cumulative annual sales of low-emission passenger cars 7,195,500, up 71% over the previous year, accounting for passenger cars 70% of total sales over the previous year by nearly 8 percentage points, the growth of the entire car market contribution of 70%; wind power generation equipment and DC power transmission equipment, double the growth of new energy equipment production, medium and large horsepower tractors and other high-efficiency agriculture equipment, rapid growth; efforts to contribute to energy conservation has become industry-wide consensus on this important orientation of product structure adjustment by more and more enterprises attach great importance.
Cope with the international financial crisis, machinery industry enterprises have increased their R & D investment, more emphasis on endogenous development to enhance the level.
In 2009, China’s independent innovation and high-end equipment fruitful. Among them, the living standard of the world’s leading communication equipment UHV line safety demonstration in the test run has been a year UHVDC key equipment was successfully put into operation by the end of 2009, 300 000 kW and above large-scale thermal power production accounts for thermal power output rose from 80.8% in 2008 to 82%; independently developed large-scale open pit mine 220 tons of used electric wheel dump truck was completed in 2009 identified; million tons of ethylene required three main types of compressors and multi-stream low-temperature cold box developed, domestic natural gas pipeline compressor and valves in the second phase was finally implemented in the development of natural gas contracts; 1080 tons and 500 tons crawler crane all terrain crane, etc. The successful development of large construction machinery; grade CNC machine tools and basic manufacturing equipment to make progress to implement the national major projects, ranking the world’s largest listed specifications boring bar diameter of 320 mm floor boring and milling machine developed; 36,000 tons of ferrous metals vertical extrusion machine developed.
Enthusiasm was no longer the industry growth potential synergies
Analysis of the current domestic and international situation and the development of the industry status quo, but Tzu Tsai said, the total demand in 2010 despite steadily machinery industry, but industry-wide productivity growth too fast, so competition will be more intense, companies are feeling the competition pressure will continue to increase; the entire industry based on sales volume will continue steady growth over the previous year, but by the impact of excessive competition and efficiency may be lower than the growth rate of production and marketing; the relative growth in early 2010 will be higher, even higher than 50%, but then will gradually decline, the annual growth rate curve will show a clear trend from high to low.
Based on the above analysis, CAI Wei-Chi made of sub-industry growth forecasts. Which, agricultural industries: agricultural machinery needs to buy good national policy Jixu are likely to persist under the influence of a high level, but growth slowing down than the previous year, sales are expected to grow 10% ~ 15%.
Construction machinery: the growth rate of high then low, about 10% of the whole year is expected to achieve moderate growth, the various main products is expected to reduce the gap between the Enthusiasm.
Electrical industry: domestic demand continued to decline conventional power generation equipment, but this year the original order to maintain normal production despite the basic, expected next year after that will usher in a serious shortage of grim task test; in the future the proportion of exports in total output will increase; power station cast conflict is expected to slow down the supply of forgings; wind power and nuclear power and other new energy equipment and mining is expected to increase demand Machinery electrical equipment; transmission and distribution equipment due to excessive capacity expansion and network growth rate of investment is limited, the competition in 2010 will significantly increase. the whole industry expected to grow about 12%.
Heavy Mining Machinery: metallurgical equipment and metal rolling equipment needs to sluggish demand for mining equipment, mining and washing is expected to remain stable, and Machineryging with the thermal processing technology breakthroughs and significant improvement in key equipment, production capacity is expanding rapidly, imports replacement volume will be increased significantly. the whole industry sales are expected to grow 5% ~ 10%.
General petrochemical equipment: machine and the tower tank valve and general equipment such as petrochemical demand is expected to maintain stable growth, especially in nuclear power, natural gas, liquefied natural gas long-distance pipelines and installations needed for high-end product innovation breakthrough will have a broad prospects for development. the whole industry sales expected to grow about 15%.
Machine tool industry: the large aircraft and the special needs of nuclear power and other major scientific and technological support, the high-end CNC machine tools and heavy machine tools production situation will remain in good condition, all special plane to meet user requirements and green have a broad space Machinery development, heavy-duty machine tools new orders growth expected to slow down, there is no basis for the proposed business should not blindly enter.
Automotive industry: the acquisition of small displacement of 1.6 liters and below half the cars preferential policies, but policy efMachineryts to encourage TM to increase; the development of China’s auto market is still much room for second-tier automotive market is to expand the following cities and rural extension the overall demand will continue to grow, but growth momentum will be slowed down during the year, is expected to grow about 10%.
Instruments: energy-saving environmental monitoring equipment, people’s livelihood with instrumentation, process measurement and control equipment for industrial use in high-grade, factory automation, measurement and control equipment with a relatively fast, the whole industry is expected to grow about 11%.
Cultural and office equipment: to maintain the warming trend at the end of the year is expected to grow about 10%.
Hydraulic, pneumatic, seals, fasteners, gears, bearings and other basic pieces of the industry: is expected to grow about 10%.
Engine: Estimated production growth of 6%, which, automotive and engineering machinery, agricultural machinery engines increased 10%, low-speed trucks, small tractors, irrigation and drainage, generator engines, an increase of 6% of small gasoline engine up about 3.5%.